Canada’s total nominal capital and repair expenditure is forecast to grow 3.7% in 2026, slower than the 4.7% expansion recorded in 2025 but still marking a sixth consecutive annual increase [S2].
The 2026 survey covers business and government entities classified under NAICS Canada 2022 and measures planned capital spending, prior-year expenditure and revised intentions when economic conditions warrant another data collection [S3].
Private investment grows, public projects carry more weight
Business capital spending intentions increased 2.8% in nominal terms for 2026, while governments and public institutions planned a 5.1% increase, the tenth consecutive annual expansion [S2]. Public spending had risen 13.5% in 2025, compared with the 5.7% previously planned, so the 2026 rate remains expansionary but is well below the prior-year surge [S2].
The composition matters more than the headline. Intentions moved toward buildings and infrastructure, forecast to rise 5.9%, while machinery and equipment spending fell 0.6% [S2]. This is not a uniform private-investment cycle: the stronger total is being pulled upward by public administration, utilities and a limited group of capital-intensive industries [S2].
Canada’s statistical agency describes capital spending as a variable component of gross domestic expenditure and uses the survey data to assess management expectations, industry investment and productive capacity [S3]. It also feeds the Canadian System of National Accounts, including GDP and balance-of-payments estimates [S3].
Utilities, resources and logistics lead the sector split
Utility investment intentions were forecast to rise 9.7%, driven by electricity demand and grid expansion, while resource-related sectors, including mining and oil and gas, were expected to rebound 6.8% [S2]. Transportation and warehousing ranked even higher at 10.1%, supported by logistics and network-capacity spending [S2].
Manufacturing moved in the opposite direction, with investment intentions declining 0.3% as trade pressure and project delays weighed on capital outlays in several subsectors [S2]. Services were mostly flat or lower, with two exceptions: accommodation and food services at 19.4%, and wholesale trade at 6.1% [S2].
The comparison is straightforward: utilities and transportation offer double-digit or near-double-digit growth, resources sit at 6.8%, manufacturing contracts 0.3%, and most service categories do not expand materially [S2]. Buyers serving utilities, grids and logistics can expect stronger project demand than suppliers relying on broad manufacturing investment [S2].
Regional gains depend on major projects
Capital spending was forecast to increase in 7 of Canada’s 10 provinces in 2026, but the distribution was uneven [S2]. Ontario led at 7%, followed by Alberta at 5.9% and Quebec at 3.1%, while Newfoundland was expected to contract 13.5%, Manitoba 2.5%, and Saskatchewan 1.1% [S2].
Ontario’s growth was associated with infrastructure, transportation and electricity-related projects, whereas smaller jurisdictions showed greater volatility [S2]. The provincial pattern indicates that national growth is concentrated in a limited number of regions and large projects rather than spreading evenly across private investment [S2].
That distinction affects industrial procurement. A 7% Ontario aggregate does not imply 7% demand for every valve, pump, drive or electrical assembly in the province, while a 13.5% provincial decline can still contain individual expansion projects [S2]. Equipment vendors should qualify opportunities by sector, project scale and customer rather than treating the national rate as a uniform order-book forecast [S2].
India manufacturing dominates the forward-looking CAPEX panel
India’s National Statistics Office is conducting CAPEX 2026 from October through December 2026 to collect expenditure from recent financial years, provisional expenditure in the current financial year and intentions for the forthcoming year [S1]. The survey covers selected large private enterprises registered with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, subject to eligibility and turnover criteria, under the Collection of Statistics Act, 2008 [S1].
The CAPEX 2025 results put manufacturing at 50.17% of provisional aggregate expenditure for 2025-26, or ₹5,73,900 crore. Information and communication accounted for 16.38%, or ₹1,87,395 crore; electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply represented 8.96%, or ₹1,02,448 crore; and transportation and storage represented 5.55%, or ₹63,517 crore [S1].
CAPEX 2024 provides a useful baseline: manufacturing represented 43.80% of aggregate expenditure in 2024-25, compared with 15.60% for information and communication and 14.00% for transportation and storage [S1]. The manufacturing share therefore increased by 6.37 percentage points between the two survey results, while transportation and storage declined by 8.45 points [S1].
Planned robotics spending remained highly concentrated
Robotics was not a broad-based spending category in the CAPEX 2025 panel: 21.16% of enterprises planned to allocate more than 80% of total CAPEX to robotics, while 78.84% planned to allocate less than 20% [S1]. The distribution indicates that robotics-heavy investment remained concentrated within a smaller group of businesses rather than evenly distributed across respondents [S1].
Aggregate intent was nevertheless delivered. Actual CAPEX incurred in 2024-25 by the CAPEX 2025 panel was ₹173.5 crore per enterprise, producing an overall realisation ratio of 96.3% [S1]. That is a relevant planning metric because it indicates expenditure was broadly aligned with stated intentions at the panel level [S1].
CAPEX 2026 uses a secure web portal for self-compiled submissions, supported by an instruction manual and video guide [S1]. The framework captures asset groups, industries, investment strategy, objectives and financing sources, which makes the next release more useful for identifying whether machinery, buildings, automation or supporting infrastructure is driving planned spending [S1].
Digital capex intent faces an execution gap
PwC surveyed 767 US operations and supply-chain leaders in 2026: 85% considered their organizations ahead of most competitors in digital transformation, yet 89% said technology investments had not fully produced the expected results [S4]. Only 27% had fully embedded an AI strategy across business units, while 37% were comfortable assigning AI agents to execute complete end-to-end operational processes [S4].
Data quality was a measurable constraint, with 87% reporting that poor data had impaired the value achieved from digital initiatives and only 30% reporting significant improvement in data quality and reliability [S4]. Operational automation still carried weight, as 72% ranked it among their top three AI investment priorities [S4].
For industrial suppliers, the gap between budget allocation and operating value matters. Capex intent does not confirm commissioning, uptime or productivity, so projects involving controls, sensors, data platforms and automation should be tracked through equipment acceptance and deployment milestones rather than survey intentions alone [S4].
Procurement signals are narrower than the headline growth rate
The clearest procurement signal is a shift toward infrastructure: buildings and infrastructure are set to rise 5.9%, utilities 9.7% and transportation and warehousing 10.1% [S2]. Against that, machinery and equipment is down 0.6% and manufacturing is down 0.3%, so an industrial vendor should not convert national capex growth directly into an equipment-demand assumption [S2].
Three indicators are worth tracking. First, whether Canadian private-sector intentions improve beyond the 2.8% forecast once the survey period captures the full trade-related pressure [S2]. Second, whether machinery and equipment returns from the projected 0.6% contraction [S2]. Third, the sector allocation and realisation ratio in India’s CAPEX 2026 results, especially manufacturing’s 50.17% share and the panel’s 96.3% realisation benchmark [S1].
For equipment vendors, a 2026 capex guidance overview provides a broader comparison with corporate investment signals, while the Canadian survey data identify infrastructure and utilities as the more defensible near-term sourcing priorities [S2].