China's PVC sector is staring at a near-zero net new capacity window: only ~800,000 t of additions is expected across 2026-2028, with 2027 likely seeing no new project commissioning, leaving supply pressure at a multi-year low [S4].
In 2025 China exported 3.8 million tons of PVC, equal to 16% of domestic output, overtaking the US to become the world's largest PVC exporter and turning exports into the core release valve for high inventory [S4]. Demand pull from India, where import dependence runs near 60%, absorbed roughly 50% of China's recent export growth and is anchored in infrastructure pipe and agricultural irrigation [S4].
Supply-side arithmetic: 800,000 t across three years
The 2026-2028 new-capacity pipeline totals only ~800,000 t, with 2027 likely a zero-addition year as project sanctioning slowed under pressure from the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which mandates a mercury-free catalyst shift for the acetylene (calcium-carbide) route [S4]. The conversion accelerates the retirement of sub-scale carbide-route plants; combined with a CR5 (top-5 concentration) of just 24%, the low industry concentration is expected to migrate toward vertically integrated leaders [S4]. Compared with the 2018-2022 average of multi-million-ton annual additions, this represents a structural deceleration rather than a cyclical dip. Process engineers specifying PVC-U pipe feed should therefore plan around continued tightness in domestic commodity-grade resin availability, not surplus.
Cost-curve split: carbide-PVC vs ethylene-PVC
Geopolitical disruption has pushed overseas ethylene-PVC production costs up, dragging Japan, Korea, and European plant utilization below 70%, while China's carbide-PVC route has a structural coal-cost advantage and is capturing the displaced export share [S4]. Both routes are running at a loss in 2026, placing the industry at a profit-floor condition: carbide-PVC and ethylene-PVC producers are both in the red, which is unusual and historically associated with downstream price recovery once inventory draws [S4]. The cost wedge also re-orders global trade flows; for downstream buyers, the practical effect is a wider spread between Chinese-origin and Northeast-Asian-origin offers, particularly for SG-5 general-purpose grade used in pipe extrusion.
Export engine: India, Vietnam, and the 3.8 Mt pivot
India remains the single largest PVC importer globally with import dependence near 60%, and its infrastructure and agricultural pipe demand has absorbed roughly 50% of China's incremental export volumes in recent years [S4]. Vietnam imported US$ 550 million of PVC resin in 2023, with January-May 2024 imports alone reaching ~US$ 300 million on a continued growth curve; around 70% of Vietnam's plastic-industry raw materials are imported, and the country hosts ~4,000 plastic enterprises [S1]. Key export channels into Vietnam run through China, Taiwan, and Japan, with Formosa Plastics Corp, PT. Asahimas Chemical, and IVICT among the named exporters [S1]. For procurement teams tracking synthetic resin flow, the signal is unambiguous: South and Southeast Asian pipe and cable demand is structurally short of domestic resin and will continue to pull Chinese tonnage through 2026.
Price floor and the catalyst stack
PVC prices in 2026 sit at a historical relative floor; both the carbide and ethylene routes are loss-making, and while inventory central tendency remains elevated, stocks have entered a drawdown phase that limits further downside [S4]. Three named catalysts can drive price upward: export volume, inventory drawdown pace, and policy execution on the Minamata Convention's mercury-free conversion [S4]. Specifiers buying into the spot market should treat any move below current levels as a tactical rather than structural opportunity, because the supply-side math (near-zero net adds) and the cost-curve math (loss-making producers) both argue against a sustained leg lower.
Vendor landscape and grade selection
Asia-Pacific PVC production is anchored by Shin-Etsu Chemical, Mitsubishi Chemical, Formosa Plastics Corp, and LG Chem, with Westlake Chemical, Occidental Petroleum, and INEOS Group named as the other significant global producers [S1]. For buyers sourcing mass (suspension) grade from the US, supplier channels such as Innua Petrochem are listed for PVC Mass Resin inquiries [S3]. One transaction reference, Mfrbee listing PVC resin SG-5 from Jefferson Intl. Mkt, ships in 25 kg bags, 17.0 MT per 20 GP container, 30% TT advance with balance against B/L fax copy, and ~20-day lead time after order confirmation, a workable template for spot Asian-origin tonnage [S2]. Specifiers wiring PVC into piping systems should match resin grade to the PVC-U pipe pressure/temperature class first, not to spot price alone, because K-value and plasticizer absorption shift the operating envelope more than the headline resin price does.
Procurement map: who should buy Chinese origin, who should not
For high-volume pipe extrusion, conduit, and cable-jacket applications where SG-5 / K57-K60 grade is acceptable, Chinese carbide-PVC origin in 2026 offers the most competitive landed cost backed by 16% of domestic output already flowing to export channels [S4]. For applications requiring tighter VCM residual, higher clarity, or specialty copolymer grades, ethylene-PVC from US, European, or Northeast-Asian producers remains the correct specification even at a premium, because the Chinese carbide-route conversion to mercury-free catalyst is still in execution and may produce variable quality during the transition. Inventory policy should target 30-45 days of cover rather than the just-in-time minimum, given that both producing routes are loss-making and any sustained price recovery can compress availability. The 2026 supply backdrop, only ~800,000 t of net additions through 2028 and likely zero in 2027, argues against waiting for a structurally cheaper market [S4].
Track two signals over the next two quarters: monthly Chinese PVC export volumes (any sustained print above the 2025 baseline of 3.8 Mt will confirm the export-pivot thesis), and Minamata Convention enforcement milestones in non-compliant carbide-PVC provinces, which will set the retirement pace of sub-scale carbide-PVC lines and the consolidation runway for top-5 leaders [S4]. Readers building out adjacent resin specs can cross-reference the epoxy-resin 2026 sizing and forecast for upstream raw-material context, since epoxy and PVC share several downstream coatings and construction end-uses.
For the relevant spec sheets and selection criteria, see resin sand line.