Global offshore wind additions are forecast to accelerate from just over 10 GW per year across 2026-2030 to an average of 17 GW per year through 2031-2040, with the sector posting a 24% compound annual growth rate and reaching 327 GW of cumulative new capacity by 2035 [S3][S5].
Wood Mackenzie expects the U.S. wind sector overall to install around 11 GW in 2026, up from 8.2 GW in 2025, building toward 48 GW of new capacity through 2030; offshore share of that pipeline is concentrated in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic lease areas [S2].
Baseline 2025 numbers the 2026-2030 forecast is built on
More than 9 GW of new offshore wind capacity was grid-connected worldwide in 2025, the third-highest annual figure on record, and the cumulative installed base reached 92.5 GW by year-end, equivalent to powering over 100 million homes [S5]. China alone contributed 6.6 GW of the 2025 total, keeping the country at the center of the global supply chain for nacelle, tower, and subsea cable capacity [S5].
Some 25 GW of planned offshore wind projects are classed as ready to build, and more than 50 GW sit in active construction, providing a near-term order book that is unusually deep relative to the historical 5-7 GW annual run rate [S5]. In parallel, the U.S. Department of Energy's long-range map tracks 404.25 GW of projected total wind capacity across 48 states, with offshore accounting for a smaller but rapidly growing slice of incremental build through 2030 [S1].
Year-by-year trajectory: 2026, 2028, 2030, and beyond
Annual installations are expected to double in 2026 versus 2025, triple by 2031 versus 2025, and surpass 50 GW per year by 2035, with the 2026-2030 window alone absorbing a meaningful share of the 327 GW decade total [S5]. Aegir Insights breaks the ramp into two distinct phases: just over 10 GW per year added on average in 2026-2030, then 17 GW per year on average across 2031-2040, with post-2030 capacity additions skewing toward Asia-Pacific [S3].
On the U.S. side, the 2026 calendar year is expected to land near 11 GW of new wind installations (a mix of onshore and offshore), a 49% rebound from 2024, with the 2026-2030 corridor heading toward 48 GW of cumulative additions [S2]. Industrial buyers planning multi-year capex should treat the 2027-2028 window as the first major pressure point: that is when the 50 GW global construction backlog overlaps with the back end of U.S. IRA-driven onshore build, which historically tightens monopile, tower flange, and HV subsea cable lead times.
Regional split: Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America
China is forecast to retain roughly 60% of worldwide installed wind capacity under accelerated 2030 scenarios, and around 51-52% of generation output, per a peer-reviewed machine-learning study covering 20 leading wind-energy-producing countries [S4]. The U.S. and Germany rank second and third, with developed markets showing superior capacity factors that lift generation share above capacity share [S4].
Market intent has been formalized in the U.K., European Union, Türkiye, China, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan, all of which have moved to designate offshore wind as a strategic asset and to align planning frameworks accordingly [S5]. For spec writers sourcing equipment, that policy mix directly drives the demand profile for IEC 61400-1 design class turbines, 66 kV and 132 kV array cabling, and 220 kV+ HVAC export cables; the transformer procurement playbook covers many of the same lead-time and standards issues that offshore substations now face. Chinese OEM dominance of new build capacity, covered in the offshore wind OEM market share 2026 brief, is the other half of that regional picture: the same suppliers winning Asia-Pacific orders are also the price setters for global turbine nacelles and monopile forgings.
What is driving the demand: AI data centers, electrification, grid stress
Rebecca Williams, Deputy CEO of GWEC, framed the 2026 report's argument as a direct response to two fuel-import crises in under five years, calling offshore wind "a natural fit for many countries" but constrained by "painfully slow" planning and grid-connection processes [S5]. The 2026 Global Offshore Wind Report quantifies the upside: a quadrupling of installed offshore wind capacity over the next decade, conditional on fast-tracking projects as nationally significant infrastructure and on well-designed CfD or equivalent contract mechanisms [S5].
Secondary demand from hyperscale data-center buildouts, electrification of industrial heat, and EV charging peaks is not broken out separately in the headline forecast but shows up in the 17 GW/yr 2031-2040 run rate; industrial buyers of pressure transmitters, flow meters, and industrial valves for balance-of-plant should size 2027-2029 orders against this ramp, since substation and HVDC platform builds are instrumentation-heavy. IEEE 519 and IEC 61000 harmonic compliance on the offshore side, plus the grid-code obligations that come with CfD awards, are the practical spec thresholds where control package content gets locked in.
Selection criteria for buyers in the 2026-2030 window
Four decision variables tend to dominate: (1) turbine IEC 61400-1 design class and specific power (W/m^2), (2) foundation type (monopile, jacket, floating) set by water depth and seabed, (3) voltage level for inter-array and export cabling, and (4) the O&M port-and-vessel strategy, which often dictates 15-25 year service contracts. [S5]
For example, a 15 MW direct-drive turbine on a monopile in 30-40 m water depth (typical North Sea and U.S. Northeast) calls for a different pressure sensor and yaw-system spec than a 12 MW geared turbine on a floating semi-submersible moored in 200+ m water depth (typical California, southern Japan, and parts of the Mediterranean). The same logic applies to PLC and servo motor choices for pitch and yaw control: redundant SIL-rated safety chains, IEC 61131-3 programming, and ambient temperature derating for nacelle heat-soak are now baseline, not options. Projects in CfD or auction regimes additionally require grid-forming inverter behavior and ride-through settings to be documented before financial close, which pushes more of the HMI touch panel and SCADA spec onto the OEM during tendering.
Limitations, risks, and what could break the forecast
Three constraints are flagged repeatedly in the source material. First, planning and grid-connection timelines: GWEC explicitly calls them "painfully slow and beset with risks for developers and investors," and a single delayed interconnector can push a 1.2 GW project from 2028 into 2030 [S5]. Second, project-finance cost of capital, which is sensitive to CfD design and to the bankability of take-or-pay structures; a poorly designed mechanism raises LCOE and triggers a re-bid that the 50 GW construction backlog can absorb but the 25 GW ready-to-build queue cannot [S5].
Third, supply-chain bottlenecks in monopile forging and HV subsea cable, where 2024-2025 lead times stretched to 30+ months on certain diameters. Industrial buyers planning BOP skids, switchgear, and industrial valve assemblies should anchor RFQs to the 2027-2028 installation window, not the FID date, and bake in 12-18 month escalation clauses for copper, steel, and rare-earth content. U.S. policy swings around offshore lease area permits add a fourth layer of variance for North American projects that the headline GWEC forecast does not disaggregate.
What to track through end-2026
Three near-term signals will validate or stress-test the 2026-2030 trajectory: the final 2025 grid-connection tally from GWEC's H2 2026 update (a downside print below 8 GW would compress the 2026 doubling), the next U.S. BOEM lease-area auction schedule, and the disclosure cadence of 66 kV versus 132 kV array-cable awards through Q4 2026, which sets the 2027-2028 cable and accessory demand curve. The Aegir Q2 2026 forecast revision, due before end of September, will be the first public re-baseline against actual 2026 vessel days and monopile mill output. [S3]