Global tungsten mine output reached 85,000 metric tons (MT) in 2025, up from 82,000 MT in 2024, with China contributing 67,000 MT and holding 2.5 million MT of reserves [S1]. APT CIF prices have climbed from $83/kg WO3 in January 2026 to $340/kg WO3 by July 2026, a more than fourfold move that is forcing procurement teams to re-model supply [S4].
China's share of global mine production sits at roughly 80%, but it controls about half of reported global ore reserves, an imbalance that has triggered export controls, quota tightening, and the search for non-Chinese supply from Sangdong (South Korea), Hemerdon (UK), and projects in Canada and Australia [S1][S4]. Beginning January 1, 2027, U.S. defense procurement rules will prohibit defense contractors from sourcing tungsten metal powder and heavy alloys from China and other designated countries, lifting demand for traceable, qualified alternatives [S4].
Where the 85,000 t comes from: 2025 country split and reserve depth
China produced 67,000 MT in 2025, Vietnam 3,000 MT, and the remainder was distributed across South Korea, Russia, Bolivia, Australia, and several smaller producers, with global reserves estimated at 4 Mt (2023 baseline, ~78 kt mine output) [S1][S3]. China's production has trended downward over recent years as Beijing restricted mining and export licenses, imposed concentrate quotas, and tightened environmental inspections, with stricter controls added in 2025 after a trade dispute with Washington [S1].
Reserves remain heavily concentrated: China holds 2.5 million MT, Vietnam 170,000 MT, and the balance is spread across Russia, Australia, Bolivia, and others, meaning that even rapid ex-China project development cannot shift the resource base within a single planning cycle [S1]. Vietnam's Núi Pháo mine, owned by Masan High-Tech Materials, operates with a 6,500 MT/year on-site refinery and supplied 8% of US tungsten imports between 2021 and 2024, making it the most material non-Chinese concentrate source today [S1].
Ex-China project pipeline and the 2030 capacity addition
By 2030, eleven projects outside China could add nearly 20 kt WO3 of mine production capacity, lifting total ex-China mine capacity to roughly 34 kt WO3 on S&P Global's asset-level analysis [S4]. The headline restart is Almonty Industries' Sangdong mine in South Korea, which began production in 2026 after more than three decades on care and maintenance, and is one of the world's historically largest tungsten operations [S1][S4].
Other tracked assets include the Hemerdon restart in the UK plus projects in Canada and Australia, though S&P Global flags that "much of this future supply remains subject to execution risk, making the timing of commissioning uncertain despite government support and offtake agreements" [S4]. The pipeline concentrates first production in 2027–2029, with full ramp typically lagging first concentrate by 18–30 months for APT conversion, so capacity planning models should treat nameplate as an upper bound, not a delivery date.
Price, policy, and the APT pinch point
The APT CIF price spike from $83/kg WO3 to $340/kg WO3 between January and July 2026 is the most actionable signal for procurement: it reflects both Chinese export-license friction and a structurally tight ex-China APT conversion base, since S&P's cost-curve work excludes Chinese-owned and Russia/North Korea assets [S4]. For planning, APT (ammonium paratungstate, the standard intermediate for tungsten metal powder and carbides) is the right price index to track, not the metal or concentrate price, because the conversion step is the bottleneck outside China.
Two policy levers compound the squeeze: (1) the U.S. January 1, 2027 defense-procurement ban on China-sourced tungsten powder and heavy alloys, and (2) China's 2025 addition of certain tungsten products to its export-control list, a move that followed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports imposed in February 2025 [S1][S4]. Together they create a hard demand pull for ex-China APT, heavy alloy, and metal powder at a moment when ex-China APT capacity is still under construction. The U.S. imported 27% of its tungsten from China in 2024, a dependence ratio that makes the 2027 rule binding rather than aspirational [S1].
Material efficiency and the recycling ceiling
Leal-Ayala et al. (2015) estimated global tungsten losses as fine particles during beneficiation and extraction at 10–40%, and flagged that better recycling collection systems could return 17–45% more tungsten discards back into new products [S5]. For capacity planners this matters because secondary supply is the only variable that can move inside a 24-month horizon; new mines cannot.
Industrial buyers should therefore treat scrap collection (machining swarf, cemented carbide inserts, worn drill bits) as a strategic feedstock, not a disposal line, and grade it against primary APT specifications. End-uses with the highest scrap recovery potential are cutting tools, wear parts, and mill products, where closed-loop collection already exists in aerospace and tool-steel supply chains [S5].
Decision map: who should act now, and how
Defense prime contractors and Tier-1 suppliers should qualify at least two non-Chinese APT or powder sources before Q4 2026, given the January 1, 2027 sourcing rule, and lock in multi-year offtake from Sangdong and the early Canadian/Australian projects while nameplate capacity is still being allocated [S4]. Cutting-tool and drill-bit OEMs should expand scrap-take-back programs and target 20–30% recycled content in feed powder, since secondary supply is the only volume lever available inside a 2-year window [S5].
Process plants and flow meter skids that use tungsten-heavy wear components (valve trim, slurry-handling industrial valve seats) should audit current tungsten-bearing part inventories and pre-qualify alternative carbide grades, because APT volatility will push part lead times and prices into 2027. Capacity planners modeling 2027–2030 should run three scenarios: (1) baseline with ~34 kt WO3 ex-China nameplate reached on schedule; (2) delayed ramp pushing effective ex-China supply to ~20 kt WO3; (3) Chinese quota relaxation returning APT below $200/kg WO3. Investment-grade offtake is only rational under scenarios 1 and 2.
What to watch between now and 2030
Trackable signals over the next 6–12 months: Sangdong ramp-up tonnage and concentrate grade disclosures from Almonty; Hemerdon first-concentrate date and APT offtake announcements; the next U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries release for the 2026 production split; and any change in China's tungsten concentrate quota or export-license list, which historically moves APT prices by 20–40% within a quarter. The combination of the 2027 U.S. defense ban and a still-under-construction ex-China APT base keeps the supply curve structurally tight through at least 2028. [S4]
Spec-level background on the components involved: pressure transmitter.
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