Recycled-content copper production rose 5.6% year-on-year in January through May 2026, while primary refined output grew only 2.4% over the same window, lifting the secondary share of global refined copper to about 17.8% [S5].
Secondary copper now supplies roughly 30% of total U.S. copper, with old (post-consumer) scrap contributing an estimated 160,000 t of copper and new (manufacturing) scrap adding another 760,000 t in 2025 [S1]. The shift matters because wire-rod and brass mills already draw around 80% of all recycled copper in the U.S., so a 1% swing in collection directly moves cathode-equivalent feed.
ICSG forecast: scrap outruns primary through 2027
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG), in its April 2026 Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027, projects primary refined production up 2.3% and secondary refined production up 5.7% in 2027, a widening of the gap that first appeared in 2026 [S3]. ICSG also trimmed its 2026 global refined copper use growth to 1.6% (from 2.1%) and pegs 2027 demand growth at 2%, citing Middle East conflict uncertainty and disrupted trade flows [S3].
On the supply-demand balance, ICSG moved from an October 2025 forecast of a 150,000 t deficit to a projected 96,000 t surplus for 2026, and an even larger 377,000 t surplus for 2027, with both revisions attributed to lower expected usage and higher secondary refined production [S3]. For buyers of copper material, this surplus path is the single most important price-relevant data point in the 2026 ICSG release.
Where the tonnes come from: country-level production
China and the Democratic Republic of Congo together produced 58% of the world's primary refined copper in the first five months of 2026, the dominant share of the 2.4% global primary growth [S5]. India was the standout mover on secondary capacity, with May 2026 production estimated 30% higher year-on-year as the Adani refinery in Mundra ramped up utilization [S5].
U.S. mine production of recoverable copper fell to 1.0 million tons in 2025, down 5% from 2024, while primary refinery output dropped to 790,000 t and secondary refinery output climbed to 60,000 t, the highest reading in the 2021-2025 USGS series [S1]. The U.S. remains a net importer of refined copper, with the net import reliance metric reaching 57% in 2025 versus 45% in 2024, and imports of refined copper jumping to 1,700,000 t from 903,000 t the year prior [S1].
Scrap prices diverge sharply across regions in Q2 2026
Regional price gaps opened up in Q2 2026: North American copper scrap prices hovered around USD 13,300/MT on an FOB basis, easing as domestic collection volumes improved and Asian export inquiries softened [S4]. India moved in the opposite direction, with its Copper Scrap Price Index up 12.4% quarter-on-quarter to roughly USD 1,634.67/MT on a landed import basis, driven by import dependence, tighter availability, and downstream copper-consuming demand [S4].
Europe saw a gradual price decline as recovery from automotive and construction end-of-life streams (vehicles, renovation waste, electrical components, wiring, pipes) lifted regional supply, even though electricity costs pushed the Copper Scrap Production Cost Trend slightly higher [S4]. A side-by-side read of these three regions shows that scrap availability, not LME copper, was the dominant local price driver in Q2 2026.
U.S. inventory and tariff overhang reshape trade flows
Combined LME, Comex, and SHFE warehouse stocks exceeded 1,065,000 t at the end of June 2026, the highest level since May 2003, with H1 2026 inventories up roughly 320,000 t (43%) versus end-December 2025 [S5]. LME warehouses added nearly 180,000 t and Comex warehouses added more than 150,000 t in the first half, while SHFE actually shed about 9,600 t over the same period [S5].
The split signals a U.S.-bound copper build tied to a pending Section 232-style tariff decision on refined copper imports, which was still unresolved as of 29 July 2026, with the July 24 Copper Journal citing a 14 cents/lb spot Comex premium over cash LME [S5]. For processors, pressure transmitter spec sheets that call for copper-containing instrument air lines now have a feedstock cost signal that moves on policy, not just on scrap supply.
Market sizing: $73.9 B today, $115 B by 2034
Fortune Business Insights pegs the global copper scrap market at USD 73.90 billion in 2026, growing to USD 114.97 billion by 2034 at a 5.7% CAGR [S2]. The U.S. copper scrap market was USD 713.0 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,070.7 million by 2033 at a 5.3% CAGR, per Grand View Research [S7].
Within the broader copper and copper alloy scrap and recycling market, the copper scrap segment is projected to hold 61.20% of revenue share in 2026, the dominant sub-segment by a wide margin [S6]. For procurement teams tracking unit economics, the alloy share of the other ~38.8% is the relevant counterpart, and brass and wire-rod mills are the dominant end users on both sides of that split [S1].
How the secondary share actually moves
Mechanically, the 17.8% global secondary share in early 2026 is up from 17.3% in the same January-May 2025 window, a 0.5 percentage-point lift that reflects China's dominance of incremental scrap-fed output and India's capacity ramp [S5]. In the U.S., the 30% supply-share figure covers both refined-from-scrap and direct melt into alloys, while the 160,000 t old-scrap recovery number converts post-consumer streams like wire, plumbing, and end-of-life vehicles back into cathode-equivalent feed [S1].
For a working comparison, copper scrap stacks against primary cathode on three decision criteria: energy intensity (secondary refining uses a fraction of the energy of primary smelting and electrolytic refining), lead time (scrap-to-refined cycles are typically days to weeks versus months for concentrate-to-cathode), and tariff exposure (U.S. HTS 7404.00.0000 for copper scrap remains duty-free at "Free", while refined copper under HTS 7403.00.0000 carries a 1% ad valorem baseline that an unresolved tariff decision could change) [S1][S5]. Specifiers sourcing lamps and light fittings that contain copper-bearing components inherit these lead-time and tariff signals through the upstream rod-mill chain.
End uses that pull the secondary mix
Building construction absorbs 42% of U.S. copper and copper alloy products, electrical and electronic products 23%, transportation equipment 18%, consumer and general products 10%, and industrial machinery and equipment 7%, the same end-use basket that recycles back into the scrap stream decades later [S1]. The structural pull from electrification, renewables, grid build-out, and EV manufacturing is the long-term demand floor underneath the secondary supply growth, and it is what makes 5.7% 2027 scrap-output growth a forecast ICSG is willing to publish [S3][S4].
For plants buying construction machinery and equipment and checking and testing apparatus that contain copper windings, busbars, or instrument tubing, the secondary share trend is a leading indicator for cathode and rod-mill contract negotiations through 2027.
What to track next
Three trackable signals will define the 2026-2027 secondary copper path: the unresolved U.S. refined copper tariff decision out of Washington, the next ICSG monthly release confirming whether China's secondary output is sustaining the 5.6% run-rate, and whether India's Copper Scrap Price Index holds above the USD 1,634.67/MT Q2 2026 landed level as Adani's Mundra refinery continues ramping. Linked upstream coverage of the rod-mill side of this trade is in Copper rod and wire mill capacity additions accelerate through 2026, and the demand-side intensity benchmarks sit in Copper intensity benchmarks for wind, solar, and battery projects. [S5]