Solar PV remains the dominant utility-scale renewable addition, with Mordor Intelligence framing the 2026 outlook in terms of installed GW rather than revenue, segmenting the market by Technology (Monocrystalline-Si, Multicrystalline-Si, Thin-Film, Tandem/Perovskite), Deployment Type (Ground-Mounted, Rooftop/BIPV, Floating PV), End-User (Residential, Commercial and Industrial, Utility-Scale IPPs), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa) [S5]. Allied Market Research places a parallel 2019-2026 forecast track for the broader photovoltaic market on the same horizon window, with reports priced for Business User License at $5,769 (Enterprise at $10,995) [S1].
The Rooftop Solar PV sub-segment alone is sized to $244.34 billion by 2031 in IndustryARC's August-2025 update, with five-year forecast data and 253 pages of analyst coverage, indicating the distributed-PV lane is where most B2B component demand (inverters, racking, modules) is now pooling [S7]. For purchasers mapping the upstream chain, the wider vendor landscape for cell, wafer and inverter lanes is detailed in our Top Photovoltaic Companies 2026 reference.
Sub-Segment Volume Splits: Monocrystalline, Thin-Film and Tandem/Perovskite
Mordor's technology taxonomy for 2026-2031 explicitly lists Monocrystalline-Si, Multicrystalline-Si, Thin-Film and Tandem/Perovskite as the four tracked PV technology lanes, with volume reported in GW rather than revenue [S5]. IndustryARC's rooftop report pairs $244.34 B revenue sizing with five-year forecast data and analyst support for procurement-side scenario building [S7]. The shift from multicrystalline to monocrystalline is now the dominant technology trend; however, specific GW share figures per technology are not in the research material and must be sourced from the underlying Mordor or Wood Mackenzie datasets before quoting.
Across deployment types, ground-mounted utility-scale, rooftop/BIPV and floating PV are tracked as separate growth lanes with different balance-of-system cost stacks. Rooftop is the highest-revenue sub-segment in dollar terms ($244.34 B by 2031 per IndustryARC) but utility-scale dominates GW additions [S7][S5]. Tandem/perovskite-Si stacks remain the most-watched efficiency lane for 2026-2031, though commercial GW deployment is still limited relative to crystalline-Si.
Deployment Type and End-User Demand Lanes
Mordor splits Deployment Type into Ground-Mounted, Rooftop/BIPV, and Floating PV, and End-User into Residential, Commercial and Industrial, and Utility-Scale IPPs [S5]. Utility-Scale IPPs absorb the largest single-axis tracker volumes, and Zion Market Research sizes the PV Tracker Market against 2023 base-year GW, segmented by Application (Utility, Non-Utility) and Region, with a 2024-2032 forecast window [S6]. Rooftop/BIPV lane dollar sizing of $244.34 B by 2031 indicates the commercial and industrial rooftop retrofit cycle is the structural B2B pull [S7].
Floating PV remains a niche lane that is growing off a small base; it is listed as a distinct deployment type in Mordor's taxonomy and pairs with utility-scale tracker demand where reservoir or offshore-buoy projects are tendered [S5]. For adjacent energy storage and EV-side demand pools, the EV battery 2026 capacity and chemistry mix is covered separately in our EV Battery Market 2026 reference.
Tracker Sub-Market: 2024-2032 GW Outlook
The PV Tracker Market is reported by Zion Market Research against a 2023 base year with a 2024-2032 forecast window, segmented by Application (Utility, Non-Utility) and Region, sizing global market value and growth [S6]. Single-axis trackers dominate utility-scale projects, with bifacial module + single-axis tracker combinations now the default GW-scale architecture in Middle East, North American and Australian tenders. Non-utility tracker demand is driven by C&I ground-mount projects in the 1-20 MW range.
Zion's segmentation (Utility vs Non-Utility) is coarser than Mordor's, but the two datasets are complementary: Mordor for module-mix volume in GW, Zion for tracker hardware revenue and regional splits [S5][S6]. For spec-side sourcing, tracker motor, slew-drive and controller demand pulls from the same industrial automation vendors that supply servo motors and PLCs into adjacent motion-control lanes.
Geographic Splits: Asia-Pacific Lead, MEA and LATAM Acceleration
Mordor's geography dimension covers North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa, with Asia-Pacific holding the largest installed base and GW additions through 2031 [S5]. IndustryARC's rooftop report pricing at $4,250 for a 253-page PDF indicates deep commercial analyst coverage of distributed-PV retrofit demand, which skews toward North America, Europe and parts of APAC [S7]. The Middle East and Africa lane is the fastest-growing utility-scale region on a percentage basis, driven by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt tenders, though absolute GW additions remain below APAC.
South America (Brazil, Chile) is a significant floating-PV and ground-mounted utility-scale lane, with tracker demand split between single-axis dominant (Brazil) and fixed-tilt legacy (Chilean desert) [S5][S6]. For utilities comparing PV build against gas-peaker and wind alternatives, our Natural Gas Industry 2026 reference covers the gas-side displacement economics, while offshore wind 2026 build windows are in Offshore wind 2026.
Adjacent Component Markets: Inverters, Connectors and Cables
PV build-out pulls four upstream component lanes: inverters (string, central, micro), DC connectors (MC4-equivalent), PV-rated cable (TUV 2 PfG 1169 / EN 50618), and racking/tracker hardware. Allied Market Research places the wider PV market forecast on a 2019-2026 window at $5,769 business / $10,995 enterprise licensing, signalling the depth of paid analyst coverage on the component chain [S1]. String inverter penetration in residential and C&I is high; central inverter penetration dominates utility-scale; micro-inverter share sits in the residential premium segment.
For connector sourcing, our Top Connector Companies 2026 reference maps vendor tiers against PV-spec bands. PV cable demand (UV-resistant, halogen-free, 1.5-6 kV DC rated) overlaps the broader cable and wire market tracked in Cable and Wire Market 2026. Inverter control electronics and BESS-integrated inverters increasingly use pressure sensors for coolant and enclosure monitoring, and flow meters for active-liquid cooling loops on utility-scale central inverters.
Procurement Decision Criteria: GW vs Revenue, Module vs BOS, Capex vs LCOE
Four decision criteria separate the major PV sub-markets in 2026: volume vs revenue, module cost vs balance-of-system (BOS) cost, capex vs LCOE, and technology readiness vs bankability. Mordor reports in GW (volume), IndustryARC reports in USD (revenue) [S5][S7]. The two metrics give different rankings: monocrystalline-Si leads on GW, rooftop leads on revenue, and tracker hardware has the highest BOS share on a per-MW basis. Zion's PV Tracker Market directly reports the BOS sub-segment at 2024-2032 forecast resolution [S6].
On technology readiness, tandem/perovskite-Si is the most-watched but least-banked; monocrystalline-Si (p-type PERC and n-type TOPCon/HJT) is the bankable default through 2031 [S5]. For procurement teams, the LCOE ranking is: utility-scale ground-mounted monocrystalline + single-axis tracker lowest, rooftop/BIPV mid, residential rooftop highest per kWh. Allied Market Research's pricing model ($5,769 / $10,995) suggests paid reports still lead on regional GW granularity [S1].
Forecast Levers and Trackable 2026-2027 Signals
Three levers move 2026-2031 PV forecasts: module ASP (down on polysilicon supply normalisation), tracker penetration rate (up on utility-scale LCOE pressure), and rooftop C&I retrofit cycle (up on corporate PPA demand) [S5][S6][S7]. Watch for: Q3-Q4 2026 utility-scale tender awards in MEA and India; 2027 TOPCon vs HJT capacity announcements; and 2026-2027 perovskite tandem pilot-line GW milestones, which are the next inflection points for technology-mix shifts.
The rooftop and tracker sub-segment reports (IndustryARC $4,250 / 253 pages, Zion 2024-2032 window) are the most actionable paid references for spec-driven procurement teams in the second half of 2026 [S7][S6]. Allied Market Research's 2019-2026 PV report remains the cross-check for module and inverter revenue bands at the $5,769 business tier [S1]. For the vendor landscape behind these numbers, the Top Photovoltaic Companies 2026 reference is the direct follow-on read.